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Do Sri Lanka still have a chance of qualifying?
With four points from six games, Sri Lanka are on the same boat as Pakistan and Netherlands. The situation is dire, but they aren’t completely out of it yet. Mathematically, it’s still possible that two teams finish on 12 or more points, and as many as seven teams end up on eight, fighting for two spots.
That means Sri Lanka, who can still finish on 10 points, are in the mix, as are Pakistan and Netherlands. However, given how poorly they’ve played so far, and that two of their three remaining games are against India and New Zealand, the chances of them progressing are rather slim.
How much does this victory improve Afghanistan’s chances of finishing in the top four?
With their win over Sri Lanka, Afghanistan currently have six points from as many games, and if they win all three of their remaining matches they will finish on 12. Given that only four other teams can get to 12 or more points, they will have a fair chance if they do get up to 12. However, while they will expect to beat Netherlands, whom they play next on Friday, their last two matches are against Australia and South Africa. Even 10 points could give them a chance if other results go their way.
However, if it comes down to net run rates, Afghanistan’s current value of -0.718 could work against them; the teams in the top four all have NRRs of more than 0.95.
What are Pakistan’s chances, going into Tuesday’s game against Bangladesh?
Pakistan have had a forgettable campaign so far, but they still have a mathematical chance of finishing in the top four, even third, if other results go their way. They can’t catch up with India’s 12, but if at least one of New Zealand, South Africa and Australia lose a few games and don’t go beyond 10, it could come down to run rates.
Even if Pakistan lose, there is the possibility of the eight-point tussle mentioned above.
Will 14 points be enough for qualification?
Yes, as only India, South Africa, New Zealand and Australia can finish on 14 or more points. That means a win on Thursday against Sri Lanka will assure India of a spot in the semi-finals.
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